Buccaneers 2017 Routes Snapshot White Demar Dotson Jersey , Part 1 Football Outsiders (FBO) recently published some of their results on 2017 wide receiver routes by defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), which is simply an attempt to value a player on a per-down basis, and is expressed as a percentage above or below average. per-down (DVOA) and total (DYAR - defense-adjusted yards above replacement) value for the twelve most common routes in the NFL: curl, out, dig, slant, drag, go/fly, WR screen, post, comeback, broken play, fade, and seam. In this article we will look at the first six and tackle the last six in Part 2. Because that’s an insane amount of information, FBO only focused on the roughly 20-30 or so receivers that ran these routes the most.From this information, we can see who was good at what route, who was bad, and perhaps even where a team might be using routes they probably shouldn’t as much or routes they could use more. Patterns can also emerge that tell us about the scheme. Because receiver numbers are to a small extent inherently derivative from a quarterback, it also gives us a little bit of a peek into their performance as well. Let’s go down the list:CURLThe curl is a big play in the Buccaneer’s offense. Only one Buc makes the list here though and it’s Mike Evans, who was targeted on the curl route 30 times, the second-most in the NFL. Unfortunately http://www.authenticstampabaybuccaneers.com/cheap-vinny-curry-jersey , out of the 21 receivers who caught curls the most, Evans was the third-worst in value. Also, Evans’ 1.2 YAC average was the 3rd worst behind T.Y. Hilton and the ancient Jason Witten. Looking back to 2016, not much has changed. Evans is still the only Buc that shows up, and his YAC and average depth of target is about the same. But, his value on curls was 8th best - it appears his catch percentage fell from 69.2 percent in 2016 to 56.7 percent in 2017. The reason is probably a mix between ball placement and Evans needing to do a better job using his frame to shield defenders from the ball. It’s also important to keep in mind as we go down this list that Evans’ frame prevents him from being as good of a route runner as other players ( and that’s ok). Routes that allow him to use his frame should be his bread and butter.QUICK OUTOf the 26 players who were targeted on quick out routes the most, none were Buccaneers. The Bucs did not have any players on the 2016 list either.DIGThe dig is a staple of Dirk Koetter’s offense. It is a play that often nets a big reward but can lead to quarterbacks taking more hits as it is a long and slow-developing route, usually paired with a seven step drop or a similarly timed but shortened drop from shotgun. Koetter often runs it iso, meaning it is not packaged with another route to form a concept, like Mills, though he sometimes does that too. When run iso it is just the receiver running a deep dig or crossing route by themselves and up to him to get to his spot on time and the quarterback to beat the coverages of the cornerback and safety with his eye manipulation and throw. Because of this, the dig also comes with one of if not the highest rate of interceptions in the league. Big risk, big reward.Again, Evans is the only Tampa Bay player to make the list, with 14 such passes in 2017. Of the 24 players, Evans ranked 14th in value and had a 53.8 percent catch rate. His average depth of target was 12.9, third highest, but his 0.4 YAC average was easily the worst. Clearly Evans struggles to gain separation, which isn’t all that surprising. And the NFL is a contested catch league, after all. But he could also do a much better job being more physical at the catch point which might allow him to break tackles. Because the Bucs like to run their routes deeper than most teams it’s possible safeties are also often in the area, but that also means Evans is just a broken tackle or two from gaining huge yards with no one else between him and the end zone. It’s one of the few remaining holes in his game.In 2016 Evans had the worst dig value out of all listed receivers http://www.authenticstampabaybuccaneers.com/cheap-ryan-jensen-jersey , with a 43.5 percent catch rate, 12.5 average target depth, and 1.1 YAC. SLANTThe slant is a play with good value and a pretty good completion rate. Evans is again the only Buccaneer to get enough targets to qualify. His value was below average, but his catch rate and target depth were average. A theme is emerging, as Evans’ YAC was 5th fewest out of the 30 players listed, ahead of players like Zach Ertz, Kelvin Benjamin, and Roger Lewis. However, that’s double his YAC average from 2016 and his value got better too.DRAGThe drag is a shorter another short throw for the quarterback that yields a high completion rate, often used in a Mesh concept that uses a rub to get one of the receivers open for YAC. No Buccaneers show up on this list in 2017 or 2016.GO/FLYTwo Bucs show up - Evans and DeSean Jackson, but unfortunately they are second-to-last and fourth-to-last in value, respectively. They had 21 total targets, third-most behind just Pittsburgh (Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant) and Detroit (Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay). A 25 percent catch rate is a low-percentage play, among the lowest in the NFL. Jackson’s catch rate was 11.1 percent and Evans’ was even worse 9.1 percent, which, you don’t need me to tell you is awful. Interestingly, Evans’ target depth was 29.1 but Jackson’s was 38.1, tied with Tyreek Hill and second deepest to just Bryant.Obviously, Jameis Winston’s deep accuracy issues are at play here, as are a myriad of other factors. This is a huge discussion and has been a major point of contention among fans, but we’ll just hit the key points. First Youth Jameis Winston Jersey , in 2017 Winston actually improved his accuracy over his 2016 season pretty much everywhere, and he was the 11th most efficient deep ball thrower in the NFL last season. This is largely because in today’s game anything past 16 air yards can be considered deep, and secondly Winston earns most of his keep from 10 to 25 yards out as he targets that area more often than almost all quarterbacks. However, his accuracy past 35 yards isn’t good (ranked 15th from 30-34, 25th between 35-39, and 26th 40+). If your definition of a deep ball is different then obviously this ranking will change for you. It’s also worth noting completed passes longer than 50 yards are statistically random and can’t be replicated from year to year. Winston’s deep ball mechanics appear to have suffered his pre-draft work with QB guru George Whitfield and haven’t been the same since. Lastly, it has to be noted that Winston suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder in Week 3 of last season vs. the Minnesota Vikings and did not look healthy until the last few weeks of the season. He has improved in every year; did the injury rob us of seeing some of that improvement in his deep ball, or did it just cover up a problem that’s still there? Or make a bad problem look even worse? We will have to wait until Weeks 4 and 5 of this season to find out. In 2016 Evans’ value was better but still below average, and his catch rate was 20 percent, and Jackson’s value was the fourth-best in the NFL. So the bottom line is this: the Bucs have a quarterback who struggles a great deal to hit deep vertical passes, for whatever reason, but is nonetheless operating in an offense that not only attempts these low-percentage passes at a high rate, but also half the time at an extreme depth. What that says is the team is repeatedly expecting their quarterback to do something he cannot do. Something has to change.In Part 2 we will look at how the Bucs did with WR screens, posts, comebacks, broken plays, fades, and seam routes. Bucs Nation’s Bailey Adams took us down the rabbit hole of potential free agent quarterbacks that the Buccaneers could turn their sights towards to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Griffin. Bailey took us through just about every option available this off-season for Tampa Bay and left off with the possibility that the draft would serve as the best option overall for a backup to Jameis Winston. Let’s take a look at a potential draft option that could make sense for Jason Licht and Bruce Arians. The first option that comes to mind when thinking on non day one quarterback options would have to be Daniel Jones from Duke. Some may have Jones as a first round talent but on this content creators board, he simply isn’t there. Let’s touch on Jones as a prospect and why he makes sense for Tampa Bay as a back-up and potential Jameis Winston crutch should Jameis struggle this coming season or another off-field mishap happen. Bruce Arians likes to push the ball down field and Daniel Jones had a good amount of success doing just that. Standing 6’5” and weighing 220 lbs, Jones has plenty of size and he has displayed very good touch on deep passes. This touch is something Jameis Winston has struggled with and in turn, the deep ball success has never formulated between Winston and DeSean Jackson. Jones may in fact give a player such as Jackson a better opportunity to hook up deep. That said http://www.authenticstampabaybuccaneers.com/cheap-caleb-benenoch-jersey , Jones lacks the ideal ball velocity for some of the more difficult throws such as deep outs and cross field throws. For those struggling to understand what we’re talking about here you can simply think back to Mike Glennon. Glennon could honestly toss a nice deep ball with some air under it. That said, Glennon struggled as a starter overall due to his inability to fit passes into tight windows and get throws to receivers in time on far side throws. Jones doesn’t seem to struggle as much as Glennon in this aspect, but it’s enough of a struggle to take him out of any first and potentially second round consideration for myself in a league built on timing and big plays. Jones statistically has maintained a solid level of play in each of his three seasons in college. Jones didn’t ever display elite accuracy or ball security in college, shown by his 59.9% completion rate and 29interceptions. Coming from Duke, Daniel Jones is a smart guy and those brains translate to the field. Jones shows a good feel inside the pocket and can be seen looking off defenders in games. Against Northwestern, Jones holds the linebacker in place with his eyes and throws a strike over the middle for Duke’s first score of the game. Inside the pocket, Jones has active feet and does a good setting them when delivering the football. The active feet allow for good accuracy and transitioning. One of the areas Jameis tends to get a bit sloppy is his footwork, for Jameis there is enough juice in his arm and will to make things happen that he gets away with more than he should at times. For Jones, who lacks elite velocity, footwork is paramount to his success. Jones got to display his work in front of scouts at the Senior Bowl where he eventually took home the MVP awards. Jones went 8-11 in the game for 115 yards and a touchdown pass to pair with his touchdown run. Why would Jones fit a Bruce Arians offense? Arians loves to push the ball downfield and Jones has great touch on his deep ball. Jones is a bright young quarterback and when slotted in behind Jameis Winston there is potential for quick growth. Being an incoming rookie, Daniel Jones would be learning the offense with Jameis Winston and the two could bounce off of one another when having questions. Arguably the biggest reason Jones (or another rookie) would make sense is the cost. Rookie contracts are gold, especially at the quarterback position and having multiple years of an inexpensive back-up quarterback would benefit the salary cap greatly. Why wouldn’t Jones fit a Bruce Arians offense? Pushing the ball downfield aside, Jones may lack the necessary velocity to make many of the other high risk throws in Arians offense. As consistent as Jones was at Duke, ball velocity simply means too much at the NFL level to believe Jones could ever become more than a competent back-up. Who knows, maybe Jameis Winston will turn it up a notch this season and solidify himself as the quarterback for years to come. Should that be the case, the backup quarterback will serve of little purpose other than garbage time duty. With the cap a bit tight heading into free agency, it’ll be interesting to see how Jason Licht approaches the quarterback position. Looking to the draft for Jameis Winston’s backup is the best option cost wise but that would mean putting a lot of faith into not only Jameis Winston’s play, but his health and overall availability this season as well. Jameis, this season is your season, time to play to the level a number one pick is meant to play at.
